Will China occupy Kinmen or Matsu before 2028?
The number on the top right corner of the graph is the real time community prediction score, and can therefore be different from the community prediction score underneath it. Same goes for the number of forecasters.
Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
No. of forecasters: 165
Community prediction: 52.0%
Weekly movement: +20%
Will China occupy Kinmen or Matsu before 2028?
No. of forecasters: 13
Community prediction: 50%
Weekly movement: +17.0%
Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?
No. of forecasters: 59
Community prediction: 67.0%
Weekly movement: +16.0%
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality? (Russia)
No. of forecasters: 82
Community prediction: 15.0%
Weekly movement: +14.0%
Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?
No. of forecasters: 129
Community prediction: 7.0%
Weekly movement: -11.0%