Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?
Added a short explanation to each of the predictions, detailing why a shift was noted in the community prediction percentage.
Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?
No. of forecasters: 130
Community prediction: 43.0%
Weekly movement: -37.0%
This 37% drop in the community prediction seems to stem from the fact that the elections for the Indian and the European Parliaments have passed without any claims of elections being lost due to deepfake image, video, or audio recording. The only major G20 election left is the US Presidential election in November.
Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?
No. of forecasters: 67
Community prediction: 96.6%
Weekly movement: +35.6%
The increase points to the probable conclusion of the EU investigation into China’s state subsidies for its car manufacturing on Wednesday 12th June, and the eventual notification issued by the EU to China, saying that it will impose tariffs on electric vehicle imports.
Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?
No. of forecasters: 49
Community prediction: 15.0%
Weekly movement: +34.0%
The position of Hamas to seek a ‘complete halt’ to the war, in the group’s response to a US-backed plan for a ceasefire in Gaza, might have played a role in this shift.
Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?
No. of forecasters: 173
Community prediction: 15.0%
Weekly movement: -34.0%
The time limit on this questions seems to be the biggest factor in the 34% drop. The process to issue these warrants sometimes takes months, if not years.
Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?
No. of forecasters: 73
Community prediction: 80%
Weekly movement: +10.0%
There has been increased activity on the border between Israel and Lebanon, with both Hezbollah and the IDF replying to each others rocket strikes.